Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty
Democrats did better than history would have predicted — the best a leading party has done in the midtermsin 20 years. And that raises questions about political pollsters. Forecasts before Election Day indicated that undecided and independent voters were increasingly upset about inflation and crime — even more so than the state of democracy, voting rights and the decision to end federal protections for abortions — and that they planned to vote against the party currently in power.
Dixon’s campaignexcitedly responded, “Dixon is surging, independents are breaking in her favor, and the momentum is on her side with one week left before Election Day.” A composite of polls found thatWhitmer had a five-point leadover Dixon then, but the Republican’s campaign seemingly had proof to show otherwise.
Other polls were also suspect. “I woke up (Wednesday) feeling like this was unusual. The Democrats probably will lose control of the House and might lose control of the Senate, but it clearly was not the red wave that a lot of people expected,” Hanson says.
Chuck Schumer, leader of the Senate Democratic Caucus.Drew Angerer/Getty Images
But then, at the start of summer,the Supreme Court overturned the longstandingRoe v. Waderuling, attacking women’s reproductive rights. That stirred up anger and fierce motivation, and the Democrats seemed to have a tailwind. By fall, that abortion anger may have quelled, and news media said voters were much more concerned about economic issues, which favored right-leaning candidates. That’s what the fall polls predicted.
“If you’re polling at 50%, you’re really likely to be somewhere between 46 and 54%,” he says. “Well, that’s a big gap in a competitive election.”
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Media and the public like polls anyway. They appear “very concrete and give you a sense of precision that’s not really true,” Geer says. For those seeking a better prediction, Geer suggests a broader approach. “You want to look at a bunch of polls, you don’t want to just look at one, and you want to look at the trend in polls. But you also want to look at some underlying fundamentals — what is the state of the economy? Do the candidates have enough money?”
Furthermore, political polls are not gospel. “Elections are about turnout and that’s not always who you are talking to in all of the polls,” says Amy Dacey, executive director of the Sine Institute of Politics & Policy at American University. “Turnout is what matters. The only real true poll is what happens on Election Day.”
source: people.com
